last updated: 19 May 2021 (approximate reading time: 7 minutes; 1470 words)
It always bothers me when people who are not Middle-East experts make broad pronouncements about flare ups of violence between Israel and Hamas, as if their perspective is somehow right whereas others who have studied, lived, and otherwise have stakes in the situation are less right, if not outright wrong.
I’m often asked to weigh in with what I think. I suppose the quippy answer is to simply say “I think it sucks” and leave it at that. Or to give the slightly less quippy but equally dismissive answer “it’s complicated.” Neither are wrong—I do think it sucks, and it is complicated.
In the current violence between Israel and Hamas, there is no party that is right, only victims. No side in this conflict deserves what they are getting, and the strong leadership necessary to end the hostilities simply doesn’t exist.
Unfortunately, the media likes to frame everything as a convenient narrative of good guys and bad guys, even when that doesn’t fit. So I’m going to make a comparison, knowing full well that it is inadequate, but that at least hints at the complexity of the issue. And yes, I bring my own mindset and experiences into the comparison, I am not attempting to represent it as anything other than my understanding.
So to try and explain the current violence between Israel and Hamas, let’s start with the following comparison:
Let’s call a future governor of Oklahoma MiniTrump. He is a neo-fascist, corrupt governor, who has retained his position by force of personality, but his power is flagging, his legislature divided, and he’s being criminally investigated. In fact, as soon as MiniTrump is out of office, he is expected to be indicted and put on trial for his crimes. So he is desperate to try and appease anyone who can help him retain his position.
One of the few allies that MiniTrump has is the enemies of the Cherokee Nation. While the Cherokee reservation is an independent territory inside Oklahoma, it still relies on Oklahoma for electricity, water, power, economic support, and so on.
But it’s even more complicated than that. You see, there is a legitimate government of the reservation, which the Oklahoma government deals with. However, that government has been forced out of half of the reservation by a crime syndicate. The crime syndicate brutally controls the west of the reservation, running what is essentially a mob protection racket.
The syndicate retains it’s power two ways: one is by handing out money to people who are starving (money they receive for crimes, such as smuggling goods across borders, etc), and by trying to unite the people by using the government of Oklahoma as a common enemy. So the syndicate keeps a massive stockpile of rockets under buildings, in press offices, in schools and nursery, and so on, so they can continually harass the citizens of Oklahoma as a way to attempt to galvanize their own people, and take the focus off of their crime racket.
As you can see, both MiniTrump and the crime syndicate “win” if there’s a conflict. Each side gets to assume a self-righteous posture, and change the focus from their crimes. Into this tinderbox, arose the following:
MiniTrump, in order to appease his anti-Cherokee supporters in government and keep power, agreed to throw a bunch of Cherokee out of their homes in a part of Oklahoma near the reservation. The Cherokees protested. The police responded to their protest with brutality.
Needless to say, this is horrible. MiniTrump made a terrible call, just for political gain. The police brutality was out of line.
The crime syndicate running the west half of the Cherokee reservation then saw their chance to use this event to galvanize their population and keep power. They started shooting hundreds of rockets into Oklahoma, using the treatment of protesters as their excuse. Few of the missiles land, because the Oklahoma national guard is far more equipped and trained than a crime syndicate. But some do, and regular citizens of Oklahoma, people just trying to work or relax at home, are bombed.
This gives MiniTrump just the opening he needs. He can retaliate with massive force, taking the focus entirely off of his crimes, and off of the brutality of his police officers, and puts the focus on the crime syndicate’s rockets. MiniTrump is smart; he knew that by putting his focus on the rockets, some in the media who are just looking for that convenient narrative framing, will paint him as the good guy, and the crime syndicate as the bad guys, even though the spark that began the initial protests was his fault.
But the crime syndicate is smart, too. They knew that MiniTrump would bomb their thugs and guns, which is why the syndicate stashes their weapons in populated buildings, around kids, etc. and make sure that their thugs are always surrounded by “human shields” so when they are targeted, civilians will be collateral damage. The crime syndicate knows that when there are more casualties on the reservation than in Oklahoma, some in the media who are just looking for that convenient narrative framing, will paint them as the good guys, and Oklahoma as the bad guys, even though the rockets were their fault.
Meanwhile, the legitimate Cherokee government sits by impotently, screaming for an end to the violence, but having no pull on the crime syndicate or MiniTrump. The media barely acknowledges them anymore, they only make the narrative complicated, which doesn’t get as many views or reads or clicks or likes or whatever.
My analogy is imperfect at best, but I hope it does put a little perspective on some of the complexities. MiniTrump’s career (and freedom from prison) is served by both forcing out the initial Cherokee and the conflict with the crime syndicate. MiniTrump should never have attempted to force out the Cherokee from their homes. Oklahoma’s courts should have stopped him. And the police should not have brutally put down the demonstrations against him. But of course, it served MiniTrump to do so.
At the same time, the crime syndicate should never have reacted to police brutality outside their territory by launching rockets. But of course, the rockets served the crime syndicate. They knew that MiniTrump could not let it stand (no leader who wants to stay in power can do nothing when they are under attack), and would retaliate. They knew that by hiding their weapons and criminals behind civilians, the casualties would be disproportionate. And they knew this would take the focus off of their crime syndicate, and put it squarely on MiniTrump. Obviously, the crime syndicate should not be firing rockets into Oklahoma, but of course, it serves them to do so.
It’s easy to come up with how this all could have been avoided. The bottom line is both MiniTrump and the crime syndicate have their reasons to keep the violence going, and to keep it brutal. There is no “good guy” here. But on both sides, there are people who want no part of this, being caught in the crossfire. That is the real tragedy, and the real horror.
There isn’t one single thing that will solve the Israeli-Hamas conflict. Hopefully there will be a cease-fire imminently, which will cool things off until the next flare up, but that isn’t a solution. Hamas will keep collecting rockets, and keep it’s people under it’s protection racket unable to breathe. And Netanyahu will keep manipulating the Israeli government to keep himself in power rather than land in prison.
In general, I’d say the following steps would make things better, but of course all are easier said than done:
I’m not going to describe what final status should look like; that’s for the stakeholders to determine.
Right now, both Netanyahu and Hamas are villains, and the people on both sides their victims. It’s going to take heroes on both sides to make things work long term. All I can do is hope and pray for peace, and that one day, both sides find the political will to end all the bloodshed.
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